No Surprise As Expected

Today’s CPI print for the month of November met expectations across the board, with core CPI holding steady at 3.3% for the fourth consecutive month and the headline year-over-year figure edging up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. With no upward surprises in the main figures, the data does little to disrupt the widely anticipated December rate cut.

Recent economic data has pointed to a resilient U.S. economy with persistently sticky inflation, making the prospect of a January pause more reasonable. But, as we’ve noted before, the picture painted by “the totality of the data” has not been clear. Following this afternoon’s CPI release, the implied odds of a December cut rose from 86.1% to 96%, while the probability of a pause in January increased slightly.

This comes on the back of a significant flattening in the yield curve over the previous three months – December’s FOMC economic projections for the path of monetary policy (and inflation) will be one to watch to judge just how much of the planned cutting cycle has been revised by committee members.

Microsoft shareholders yesterday voted against a proposal to allocate 1% of the company’s $78 billion cash reserves to Bitcoin, following the recommendation of the Microsoft board. On Monday, Amazon shareholders expressed interest in adopting a Bitcoin reserve strategy similar to that of MicroStrategy.

BTC Dominance has continued to claw back some of its post-election losses, currently ranging at the 57% level – BTC’s spot price has been falling, but altcoins have been falling even harder. This week has seen some positive activity for other minor currencies, though – Sui received a further boost to positive sentiment with Bybit adding SUI to its on-chain staking platform. Ripple Labs’ (founders of XRP) venture into stable coins (RLUSD) has received approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), (Dec 10, 2024), although is still yet to launch.

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