Daily Updates:

• As “Liberation Day” looms, assets across the board once again went through a rollercoaster of prices yesterday. The S&P 500 fell nearly 1.7% intraday, officially hitting its lowest point all year (and down 10.5% from its mid-Feb high) before paring back those losses and ending the day 0.55% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 closed flat after an initial 2.5% sell-off at the start of the day. 
• The uncertainty around President Trump’s tariffs, who has claimed he initially plans to target “all countries” with his April 2 tariffs and not just the “Dirty 15” countries, comes following a hotter-than-expected PCE inflation report last week and a final revision to the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. That showed consumers expect prices to rise at an annualised rate of 4.1% over the next 5-10 years: the highest level since February 1993 (see that in the Charts of the Day below). 

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• That rollercoaster ride in equities was shared in crypto derivatives markets too: after exploding upwards yesterday, implied volatility levels have since plunged down, resulting in a flatter term structure for BTC compared to yesterday. The 7-day tenor, ATM IV is slightly higher than other short-term tenors such as the 14 and 30-day tenor, but is now back below longer-maturities. Comparatively, ETH still maintains a completely inverted term structure. That drop in volatility comes as BTC spot price and ETH spot price currently trades 2% and 4% higher on the day, respectively. 
• While still firmly skewed towards OTM puts, volatility smiles for short-tenors for both BTC and ETH have rallied towards calls quite significantly over the past 24 hours – having recently reached put-skewed levels last held in early 2023. Perp funding rates are also now neutral for both assets. 

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• Eric and Donald Trump Jr. have partnered with Hut 8 to launch a large-scale U.S. bitcoin-mining venture, American Bitcoin. The Trump family holds a 20% stake through their firm, American Data Centers, while Hut 8 owns 80% and provides 61,000 mining machines. Eric Trump will serve as chief strategy officer and aims to build a company “bitcoin reserve”. 
• MicroStrategy acquired 22,048 BTC for $1.92B at an average price of $86,969, funded primarily through common stock issuance. This brings its total holdings to 528,185 BTC, raising the average purchase price to $67,458.
• Kentucky has dropped its “unregistered securities” lawsuit against Coinbase over its staking program, joining Vermont and South Carolina in reversing legal action. This follows the SEC’s own case dismissal, though seven U.S. states, Alabama, California, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, and Wisconsin, still have live cases against the exchange.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day: