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Last Updated:  
April 29, 2025
2 min read

Day 100

Spot BTC ETFs continue their recent string of heavy inflows with BlackRock's IBIT fund seeing its second largest inflow on record yesterday. As the Spot ETFs continue to support BTC's recovery rally, improvements on the regulatory front include Arizona lawmakers passing the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act. If approved by the state's governor, the bill will allow the state's public funds to invest up to 10% of their funds' value in digital assets, specifically bitcoin. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to reiterate that the tariff ball is in China's court and it is up to China to de-escalate tensions. In the meantime, the US will focus on its trade relationships with 15-18 other trading partners.

Daily Updates:

  • For most of last week, BTC has traded between $92-95K buoyed by a string of significant inflows into Spot BTC ETFs and hopes that Trump’s administration is making efforts to de-escalate trade tensions.
  • Collectively, the Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF products attracted inflows of over $3.2B, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone adding $970.9M worth of bitcoins yesterday – its second largest inflow on record. 
  • As the Spot ETFs continue to boost BTC’s recovery rally, Michael Saylor’s Strategy also announced a 15,355 bitcoin purchase ($1.42B) between April 21 and April 27 for an average price of $92,737.

  • There are also new and significant positive developments on the regulatory front – one of three key drivers we believe are driving BTC’s price behaviour. 
  • Arizona lawmakers passed the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, a bill that will allow the state’s public funds (specifically the state treasurer and retirement systems) to invest up to 10% of their funds' value in digital assets, specifically bitcoin. The bill is now sitting at the desk of the state’s governor, Katie Hobbs, for approval.
  • This makes Arizona the first state in the US to pass such a bill and (according to the bill description) it “represents an emerging approach by a state government to integrate cryptocurrency into public financial management, reflecting the growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets”.

  • Despite the rally, which has pushed BTC up over 7% this week and has seen ETH jump over 12% over the same period, derivatives markets are still showing mixed sentiment. In options markets, both BTC and ETH volatility smile skews now favour OTM calls for most tenors, but in perpetuals, funding rates for both assets are negative despite BTC spot price trading only a thread away from $95K. 

  • As we enter President Trump’s 100th day in office, the S&P 500 has managed to close higher for a fifth consecutive trading session – the index mostly traded lower before a rally late in the day. The US dollar fell further yesterday, bringing its monthly performance to -4.92% and gold fell 0.74% (though it remains up 25% this year). 
  • Despite being 100 days in, tariffs are still the dominant narrative gripping markets. Speaking to CNBC, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent again reiterated the point that the tariff ball is in China’s court – “As I’ve repeatedly said, I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, so these 125% tariffs are unsustainable.” 
  • Bessent added that the US “will put China to the side, as that’s a more complex negotiation”, and will focus on the other “15 to 18 important trading relationships.”
  • The World Trade Organisation has already warned that, based on their preliminary projections, merchandise trade between the US and China could decrease by as much as 80% based on the current tariffs between both sides. 

  • This week, Brazil’s Itaú Bank announced an impressive $210M investment in Bitcoin to establish Oranje, a company focused on accumulating BTC as a strategic reserve. 
  • Meanwhile, in Argentina, the National Securities Commission (CNV) introduced a new tokenization framework. The draft rule, authorized under RG No. 1060, outlines a framework for the digital representation of marketable securities using distributed ledger technologies (DLT).

  • On Monday, April 28, 2025, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ, conglomerate IHC, and the UAE's biggest lender by assets, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), announced their plans to launch a new stablecoin backed by the UAE dirham, as Gulf countries are increasing their cryptocurrency investments. The stablecoin will be fully regulated by the UAE’s central bank and will be issued by FAB, pending regulatory approval.
  • The stablecoin, which will be fully regulated by the UAE's central bank, will be issued by FAB subject to regulatory approval, the three companies said in a statement.

  • Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, USDC, has received in principle regulatory approval from the Abu Dhabi Global Market’s (ADGM) Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), allowing it to expand operations in the Middle East. 
  • This approval positions Circle to operate as a money services provider in Abu Dhabi, following its incorporation in the financial hub last December.
  • The move comes as Circle continues to grow its payments network, increasing the utility of USDC, which has now reached a market cap of $62B.

  • Coinbase is launching the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund on May 1, targeting 4–8% annual returns for non-U.S. institutional investors by using a cash-and-carry strategy that profits from the spread between spot Bitcoin and derivatives prices.

  • Worldpay has partnered with the Global Dollar Network, enabling its merchants to settle transactions using the USDG stablecoin on the Solana blockchain. USDG, launched by Paxos Digital Singapore, maintains a 1:1 value with the U.S. dollar.

  • The Ethereum Foundation has appointed Hsiao-Wei Wang and Tomasz K. Stańczak as Co-Executive Directors as an effort to strengthen its leadership structure. This management approach is designed to enhance strategic and balanced execution, technical direction, and ecosystem development. 
  • The EF board, composed of Vitalik Buterin, Aya Miyaguchi, and Patrick Storchenegger, is responsible for setting the foundation’s strategic direction and ensuring compliance as a Swiss foundation.
  • Hsiao-Wei's experience as a board member and Co-ED, combined with her research background, makes her well-suited to bridge communication between the board and management.
  • Tomasz will serve a two-year term, during which he will leverage his understanding of community and technological needs to help the EF implement significant and comprehensive changes. He will also contribute his involvement with other ventures, including Nethermind and affiliated projects.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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Daily Updates:

  • For most of last week, BTC has traded between $92-95K buoyed by a string of significant inflows into Spot BTC ETFs and hopes that Trump’s administration is making efforts to de-escalate trade tensions.
  • Collectively, the Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF products attracted inflows of over $3.2B, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone adding $970.9M worth of bitcoins yesterday – its second largest inflow on record. 
  • As the Spot ETFs continue to boost BTC’s recovery rally, Michael Saylor’s Strategy also announced a 15,355 bitcoin purchase ($1.42B) between April 21 and April 27 for an average price of $92,737.

  • There are also new and significant positive developments on the regulatory front – one of three key drivers we believe are driving BTC’s price behaviour. 
  • Arizona lawmakers passed the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, a bill that will allow the state’s public funds (specifically the state treasurer and retirement systems) to invest up to 10% of their funds' value in digital assets, specifically bitcoin. The bill is now sitting at the desk of the state’s governor, Katie Hobbs, for approval.
  • This makes Arizona the first state in the US to pass such a bill and (according to the bill description) it “represents an emerging approach by a state government to integrate cryptocurrency into public financial management, reflecting the growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets”.

  • Despite the rally, which has pushed BTC up over 7% this week and has seen ETH jump over 12% over the same period, derivatives markets are still showing mixed sentiment. In options markets, both BTC and ETH volatility smile skews now favour OTM calls for most tenors, but in perpetuals, funding rates for both assets are negative despite BTC spot price trading only a thread away from $95K. 

Daily Updates:

  • For most of last week, BTC has traded between $92-95K buoyed by a string of significant inflows into Spot BTC ETFs and hopes that Trump’s administration is making efforts to de-escalate trade tensions.
  • Collectively, the Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF products attracted inflows of over $3.2B, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone adding $970.9M worth of bitcoins yesterday – its second largest inflow on record. 
  • As the Spot ETFs continue to boost BTC’s recovery rally, Michael Saylor’s Strategy also announced a 15,355 bitcoin purchase ($1.42B) between April 21 and April 27 for an average price of $92,737.

  • There are also new and significant positive developments on the regulatory front – one of three key drivers we believe are driving BTC’s price behaviour. 
  • Arizona lawmakers passed the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, a bill that will allow the state’s public funds (specifically the state treasurer and retirement systems) to invest up to 10% of their funds' value in digital assets, specifically bitcoin. The bill is now sitting at the desk of the state’s governor, Katie Hobbs, for approval.
  • This makes Arizona the first state in the US to pass such a bill and (according to the bill description) it “represents an emerging approach by a state government to integrate cryptocurrency into public financial management, reflecting the growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets”.

  • Despite the rally, which has pushed BTC up over 7% this week and has seen ETH jump over 12% over the same period, derivatives markets are still showing mixed sentiment. In options markets, both BTC and ETH volatility smile skews now favour OTM calls for most tenors, but in perpetuals, funding rates for both assets are negative despite BTC spot price trading only a thread away from $95K.