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Last Updated:  
March 25, 2025
2 mins

Another Relief Rally?

Crypto and equities started the week with a rally, after a one-month long stretch of losses amidst signs that President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs may be narrower in focus than expected. BTC has benefitted from the boost in risk-sentiment, breaking past $88K briefly. While not turning strongly bullish, sentiment in derivatives markets has at least pulled away from the persistently bearish tilt it’s held over the last few weeks with futures yields rising particularly at short tenors and funding rates flipping positive.

Daily Updates:

  • US and global equity indexes start the week with a rally amidst a greater appetite for risk. US and global equity indexes were all up yesterday: SPX closed 1.76% higher, the NDX advanced 2.16%, and the MSCI World Index rose 1.24%. 
  • The relief rally across equities and crypto assets, which have both experienced a 1-month long stretch of losses, comes amidst signs that President Trump’s “Liberation Day” April 2 tariffs will have a narrower scope than initially expected. This may have helped to alleviate some market fears of the wider impact of Trump's trade policies on global growth and inflation. 
  • Speaking at the White House yesterday, the President signalled that some trading partners may experience exemptions or reductions in his reciprocal tariff program – “I may give a lot of countries breaks”
  • Trump also signalled a readiness to delay some of his sector-specific tariffs to a later date, though he said he plans to impose tariffs on automobile imports, which he delayed back in February, “fairly soon, over the next few days”.
  • In an effort to advance his trade policy threats further, Trump has also announced what is being referred to as ‘secondary tariffs’ of 25% on any nation that purchases crude oil or gas from Venezuela. 
  • BTC also benefitted from the boost in risk-sentiment, enjoying a rally that saw the largest crypto token break past $88K, a level it last traded at in early March.
  • While not turning strongly bullish, sentiment in derivatives markets has at least pulled away from the persistently bearish tilt it’s held over the last few weeks.
  • Futures yields have risen, particularly at short tenors, BTC funding rates have flipped positive (however, ETH’s have remained negative), and skew towards puts at short-dated expiries has relented somewhat.
  • Front-end vols stay lower too – despite the re-rally higher in spot prices.

  • BNB Chain has introduced a $100M incentive program to encourage major centralized exchanges to list its native tokens and boost ecosystem liquidity. Eligible projects must have a minimum $5M market cap and $1M in daily trading volume.
  • Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) launched a new stablecoin, USD1, for testing on the BNB Chain. The tests included cross-chain transfers with Ethereum.
  • BlackRock has debuted a Bitcoin exchange-traded product, ETP, in Europe today, with an expense ratio of 0.15% until year-end. The ETP will be accessible to both retail and institutional investors, and Coinbase will act as the custodian for the fund. 
  • Shares of Trump Media rose 9% in premarket trading after the company announced an agreement with Crypto.com to launch ETFs with a focus on “Made In America” industries. According to a statement by Crypto.com they “will support the backend technology, provide custody and supply the cryptocurrencies for the ETFs, which are anticipated to include a unique ETF basket of cryptocurrencies incorporating Bitcoin, Cronos and other crypto assets”. 
  • MEXC DEX+ has partnered with Pump.fun, the memecoin launchpad protocol, to become the first DEX aggregator integrating Pump.fun’s new native DEX, PumpSwap.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Sentimeter Index. Source: Block Scholes
Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Sentimeter Index. Source: Block Scholes
Figure 3. BTC Spot Yields across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. ETH Spot Yields across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 5. BTC Funding Rate. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 6. ETH Funding Rate. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 7. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 8. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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