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Last Updated:  
March 21, 2025
2 mins

“Ending the last administration’s regulatory war on crypto”

President Trump’s two-minute video presentation at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit disappointed market participants, with BTC falling from $86K down to $83K. With that move in spot, BTC’s term structure of volatility has steepened and at-the-money implied volatility for 7-day tenors is currently at its lowest since late February. Short-dated optionality once again expresses appetite for downside protection with volatility smiles for tenors less than 30 days tilted towards OTM puts. Separately, Pump.fun, a memecoin launchpad protocol, has launched its own decentralised exchange, PumpSwap, on Solana.

Daily Updates:

  • President Trump gave a two-minute video presentation at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit in New York yesterday, which began with an emphasis on “how the United States is going to dominate crypto”. 
  • The presentation itself did not reveal anything new, with the President spending most of the two-minute speech recapping the crypto-positive actions his administration has taken since he has taken office: hosting the White House Crypto Summit, creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital assets stockpile, “ending the last administration’s regulatory war on crypto” and, finally, calling “on Congress to pass landmark legislation creating simple, common sense rules for stablecoins”. 
  • BTC’s drop from $86.3K down to $83K within two hours of Trump’s video statement suggests market participants had anticipated something more than what the President delivered – indeed, sources on X and other social media outlets suggested he would announce zero percent capital gains taxes on crypto, or provide further updates on the strategic reserve.

  • Most of the market quickly sold off – ETH once again dropped below $2K and is currently trading just shy of that level again. 
  • BTC’s term structure of volatility has steepened, with at-the-money implied volatility for 7-day tenors currently at its lowest level since late February. That collapse in vol at the front-end has resulted in a convergence between 7-day delivered and 7-day implied volatility.
  • Yesterday’s brief pause in bearish sentiment, which saw volatility smiles skewing towards OTM calls for all tenors, has now reversed for short-dated optionality. Tenors less than 30 days once again express appetite for downside protection.

  • The Head of Switzerland’s National Bank stated the central bank does “not have plans to buy crypto assets”, citing the “large fluctuations in value” as one major reason as well as “question marks” over the liquidity of cryptocurrencies. 

  • Pump.fun, a memecoin launchpad protocol, has launched PumpSwap, a decentralised exchange (DEX) built on Solana. It offers instant migrations for all Pump.fun coins that complete their bonding curve to PumpSwap, which replaces Raydium. It also offers zero migration fees (down from 6 SOL), increased liquidity, and upcoming creator revenue sharing. 

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC 7-day realised volatility (yellow line) and 7-day tenor implied volatility (orange line). Source: Block Scholes
Figure 2. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 3. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 5. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 6. Block Scholes BTC Sentimeter Index. Source: Block Scholes
Figure 7. Block Scholes ETH Sentimeter Index. Source: Block Scholes
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