One Last Inversion For March?

Daily Updates:

• The beginning of the week saw major US stock and global indexes climb upwards after President Trump suggested that some countries could get breaks from his reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Instead, the focus of those tariffs would be on the “Dirty 15” countries, according to his Treasury Secretary.
• The brief return of a risk-on appetite has proved to be short-lived –  the SPX and NDX extended their losses into a third consecutive day following the President’s 25% tariffs on auto imports and ahead of the uncertainty around next week’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. 

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• Crypto has been hit by the same dampened risk-appetite, with majors BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL all down by 3-6% on the day so far. 
• The result in derivatives markets was a brief inversion in BTC’s term structure before volatility at the front-end and belly of the curve dropped off again, and a currently flat term structure for ETH.
• Additionally, BTC funding rates have dropped close to their lowest all month, second only to their March 7 decline following a disappointment in perp markets from Trump’s Executive Order for a strategic reserve.

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• In bond markets, long-maturity Treasury yields have now risen to their highest levels all month with the 30Y yield currently at 4.75%, a level last seen in mid-February. 
• That sell-off at the back-end has resulted in the widest yield differential between the 5Y and 30Y yields in three years. 
• Shorter-maturity yields on the other hand (2Y and 5Y) have continued to drop on expectations of the Fed resuming its cutting cycle – that has resulted in a steeper yield curve across maturities. See that in the ‘Charts of the Day’ below.

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• Bpifrance, a state-owned French investment bank, will be launching a €25M ($27M) fund to invest in digital assets that support local cryptocurrency and blockchain projects that have a “strong French footprint” in areas such as DeFi, tokenisation, and staking.
• This means the focus of the fund is not large-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ether, but instead smaller, newly-created tokens issued by French projects before they are listed on crypto exchanges.
• Deputy CEO of Bpifrance, Arnaud Caudoux, stated that “the US is really accelerating its own crypto strategy”, meaning that the need for France and Europe to advance further in the crypto space “is all the more important”. 

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• Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is partnering with Circle Internet Financial Ltd. to explore the integration of the company’s USDC stablecoin and some of its other tokenised products into ICE’s derivatives exchanges, clearinghouses and data services. 
• Despite an initial brief rally in GameStop’s stock following its BTC reserve announcement, shares have since dropped around 25% as investors question the $1.3B convertible senior notes offering to fund the purchase and the move draws attention to the company’s struggling business model.

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• Microsoft has reportedly scrapped plans to build new data centers in the US and Europe, citing potential oversupply, despite their projected 2GW output that could have supported growing AI demands and benefited crypto mining operations.
• Ripple has partnered with Chipper Cash to deliver faster, more affordable cross-border payments across Africa through Ripple technology, marking a significant milestone in the company’s regional expansion.

This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day: