Andrew Melville
Research Analyst
Last Updated:
September 18, 2024
•
8 min read
Bybit x Block Scholes: How to Sail Through the Rate Cuts Cycle and U.S. Election With Your Crypto Investments
Our report highlights the changing dynamics of Bitcoin in the investment landscape. Since the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has increasingly correlated with risk-on assets, particularly the S&P 500. This development suggests a growing interest from institutional investors, positioning BTC as a significant macro asset. Historically, cryptocurrencies have experienced volatility, but this newfound connection to traditional equities indicates that BTC is becoming a preferred option for investors seeking exposure to broader market trends. As Bitcoin's role evolves, it is increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, similar to gold. This shift in perception underscores the necessity for investors to reassess their strategies, and to consider Bitcoin's potential as both a traditional asset and an emerging digital currency.
Key Takeaways:
- Since the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in Jan 2024, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk-on equities, such as the S&P 500, has grown. We’ve seen BTC lead major market moves in risk appetite following significant macroeconomic events, indicative of institutions leading the charge.
- As the Federal Reserve prepares to lower its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2020, historical precedent tells us that risk-on assets have outperformed their historical average return in non-recessionary cutting cycles.
- While increased market liquidity in 2020 set a favorable stage for risky assets (including BTC and other cryptocurrencies) to rally, previous cutting cycles indicate that more aggressive cutting cycles that are followed by a recession result in a poor performance of risky assets in the following year.
- Current market expectations narrowly predict the Fed will embark on its cutting cycle with a 50 bps cut, with the Fed more concerned about risks to the employment side of its dual mandate.
- Attention in the derivatives market is focused primarily on the U.S. election, with a strong volatility premium assigned to BTC options expiring in late 2024 and early 2025. This is justified by BTC’s previous response to twists in the election campaign.
If BTC is a new macro asset, what kind of macro asset is it?
Digital Gold or Risk-On?
Cryptocurrencies — in particular, Bitcoin — are increasingly being coined as digital gold, a modern alternative to the precious metal's role as a safe-haven asset. With both being viewed as stores of value, Bitcoin has been promoted by some as the new way for investors to hedge against inflation and global economic uncertainty. With this logic, it would follow that gold and BTC would be highly correlated, and recently we’ve seen this emerging trend.
The COVID Crash of Mar 2020 dramatically changed BTC’s relationship to macroeconomic assets. Prior to the pandemic, there was minimal correlation between BTC and gold (see Figure 1). However, post-pandemic a transient correlation emerged. This relationship has surged over the past year, with both commodities displaying a higher sensitivity to macro movements and, hence, showing similar price movements after these global changes in market sentiment.
The correlation between BTC and U.S. equities is stronger, notably with the S&P 500, a risk-on asset. Similar to Bitcoin’s relationship with gold, this relationship first became strongly correlated in 2020, oscillated in the interim and has since grown stronger post–BTC Spot ETF launch. As can be seen in Figure 2, S&P 500 has demonstrated a positive correlation with BTC for most of this year (2024), led by an overriding macro sentiment sensitivity across both assets. Understanding this dynamic provides us with an indication of how BTC may move under different market conditions, particularly with the upcoming U.S. election and the Federal Reserve rate cuts, expected in 2024.
Macro Drives Bitcoin, Bitcoin Leads Other Macro Assets
Crypto markets trade 24/7, and BTC can be seen to follow macro sentiment, which has resulted in BTC often leading major market moves outside of TradFi market hours. One notable example of this early price action was during the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, an event we’ve covered previously here. With traditional markets closed over the weekend, BTC plummeted first, with the S&P 500 following suit as markets opened.
Following the U.S. Employment Situation report on Sep 6, 2024, a macro data point, we noted a synchronized movement between BTC and the S&P 500. Markets had expected the U.S. economy to add 160,000 new jobs in Aug 2024. This figure came in below expectation, at 142,000, and we subsequently witnessed a BTC sell-off. When traditional markets opened an hour after the release, the S&P 500 mirrored the downward movement that BTC had begun.
We find BTC's correlation with macro has solidified post the ETF launch in Jan 2024, indicating that traders have increasingly begun to see BTC as a risk-on asset. This correlation has resulted in BTC setting the pace for market reactions outside of market trading hours, and moving alongside US equities during them. As crypto is increasingly driven by broader market sentiment, understanding this sentiment is crucial in understanding how the next leg of this cycle could play out.
If BTC moves closer in tandem to risk-on assets, what will it mean when the Fed cuts interest rates?
Recession or no recession?
The trajectory of BTC at the end of a global hiking cycle has limited historical data, as it was too young as an asset in the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, and the unique case of the two-month recession during the COVID-19 pandemic stands as an outlier.
Given BTC’s correlation with U.S. equities noted in Figures 1 and 2 above, we can use the S&P 500’s index performance in historical rate-cutting cycles as an indication of what to expect from the Sep 18, 2024 FOMC meeting and its aftermath. Our analysis is focused on the past seven rate-cutting cycles since 1989. We can identify three soft landings and four hard landings (shown by red and blue lines, respectively) — that is, when the Fed cut interest rates mid-recession, or just before a recession was officially announced, as compared to when the Fed had the space to carry out cycle adjustments and normalize policy at its own pace.
We find that in the immediate aftermath of a rate cut, the market tends to react bearishly in the short term once a cutting cycle is confirmed — this is despite an interest cut increasing liquidity, which is generally positive for risky assets over the long term In two of the three recessionary cycles (except the outlying 2020 COVID cycle), the S&P 500 performed significantly worse in the 200-day period after the first rate cut.
In the soft-landing scenarios however, once the market has bottomed out, typically 20-40 days after the first cut, we see the S&P 500 go on to post significantly positive returns. This rally takes off in particular 100 days (or roughly three months) after the first rate cut.
The average return over the 200-day period following the first cut, in the recessionary cutting cycles (excluding COVID), is −10% compared to +15% in a non-recessionary cycle. This is significantly greater than the 5% return over the entire data period, showing that cutting cycles, whether recessionary or not, do indeed have a marked impact on the S&P 500, which has an overall upward trend.
The market responds differently to rate cuts, depending upon the factors responsible for causing them. In non-recessionary cycles, rates are cut for normalization, or when inflation has sufficiently declined. Markets are less worried about a downturn in the economy, and the boosted confidence results in greater spending and investment. In a hard landing, the reduction is against the backdrop of a lack of confidence in the economy, so it doesn’t have the same effect. The market is more concerned about downside risks to growth, which mutes the bullish impact that easing liquidity is expected to bring.
A proactive and stable rate-cutting cycle is the ideal macro environment for risk-on assets (and therefore, cryptocurrency), and explains the positive returns in soft landing cases. As the risk-free returns from interest rates get smaller, investors shift to risk-on assets in search of greater yield. In this case, we can expect the S&P 500 to follow the trajectory of the blue lines in the chart, and BTC and other crypto assets to enjoy a rally along with it.
The COVID Exception
The Mar 2020 COVID recession is a clear outlier in our data set. It’s the only recession that we’ve analyzed in which 200-day returns were positive (and even greater than in the non-recession cycles). However, there are several reasons why this case may not be appropriately indicative of the current cycle, as the recession was a result of an exogenous shock from a global pandemic, which we do not expect to see repeated.
While the Fed had begun its rate-cutting cycle in 2019, it had held rates after three consecutive cuts. The market had begun to price in further interest rate cuts from late Feb 2020 and the resulting recession was brought on by the shutdown of the economy in response to the COVID pandemic.
BTC was unable to rally, however, as prevailing economic conditions created a dash for cash. We therefore saw a big sell-off ahead of rate cuts, starting on Mar 15, 2020.
The Fed ultimately went on to deliver a total of 150 bps worth of cuts, and injected a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system. This response began a major BTC and crypto rally extending toward the end of 2021, as seen in the chart above. Similarly, the chart below shows S&P 500 performance before and after the 2020 cutting cycle; this was strikingly similar, as both BTC and the S&P 500 index enjoyed the liquidity-boosted rally. The dip initially following rate cuts is more easily observed here, as is the significant rally upward, which lasted around 500 days.
If we were to see a repeat of this case, in which the Fed is forced into ballooning its balance sheet once again, then we would expect a similarly positive response from risky assets. However, the unique factors governing the pandemic event mean that the positive returns of risk-on assets are less likely to be re-created in future recessionary cutting cycles.
The Current Cycle vs. the Great Financial Crisis
The alternative recession scenario is one in which the Fed is forced into a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle over concerns that the economy and labor market have cooled more than expected. This is what we witnessed during the 2007 rate-cutting cycle, when the Fed began with a 50 bps cut in its September meeting.
In such a case, we would expect equities to see a similar initial sell-off as the rate cut takes place, and an additional decline in prices across risk-on assets from panic around a potential recession. Should this scenario unfold, we’d also likely see the S&P 500 return negatively over the long-run period of 200 days, and if BTC maintained its correlation, we’d expect it to follow.
This scenario highlights the significance of the reasons for interest rate cuts on asset performance. When the market clearly loses faith in the likelihood of a soft landing, it doesn’t bode well for the price action of risk-on equities. This historical precedent means we’d expect that BTC and crypto wouldn’t be exempt from a similar reaction.
As crypto (and BTC in particular) increasingly behaves as a risk-on asset, its response to how the Federal Reserve initiates its cutting cycle is expected to follow the S&P 500. Non-recessionary cycles have previously triggered an initial market decline before then the transmission of easier liquidity becomes a catalyst for spot prices. Conversely, recessionary cycles (excluding the COVID-19 case) which begin on the backdrop of broader vulnerabilities in the macroeconomy, experience prolonged downturns in risky-asset returns.
The Data: Given the three possible scenarios, what are current market expectations?
What is the market currently pricing in for?
Positioning in interest rate markets holds a wealth of information for how traders expect the path of monetary policy to unfold — particularly in the shape of the yield curve. For two years, the yield curve has been inverted, which occurs when there’s been a tightening monetary policy as the Fed raises rates. Recently, we’ve witnessed a steepening of the yield curve, as measured by the spread between U.S. treasury yields at 2Y and 10Y tenors. Steepening occurs when the market expects an incoming easing cycle.
The chart above shows that, in the past, the disinversion of the curve has preceded each of the last four recessions in the U.S. In multiple instances, we’ve seen the curve first disinvert before the Fed begins to cut rates, followed by a recession. If we examine the period between the time after the deepest level of inversion and the subsequent start date of the recession in the previous four recessions in the U.S., we see 460 days in the 1990 recession, 328 days in the dot-com bubble, 391 days in the GFC and 158 days in the case of COVID. This gives us an average recession start date of 334.25 days following the level of deepest inversion.
This indicator recorded a disinversion in early Sep 2024 as the 10Y rate passed back above the 2Y rate. In this cycle, the deepest level of inversion recorded (so far) was on Jul 3, 2023 (443 days ago). If that was indeed the turning point, then positioning in bond markets shows increased pressure on the September FOMC meeting to help deliver a soft landing.
Is the U.S. Presidential Election Driving Derivatives Markets?
Cryptocurrency has become a prominent issue in the 2024 electoral campaign, with the Republican party using it to tap into the Bitcoin user base for a wider reach of its party platform. With this increased institutional influence, the U.S. presidential election has become a focal point for cryptocurrency price movements. With the key event being Trump's appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, this election cycle marks a major turning point for the future of the crypto space to go mainstream by virtue of its entrance into politics.
How does each party see the future of crypto?
Although the Democratic party has previously attempted to tighten regulation in the crypto space, Harris herself has remained neutral on the topic and the 2024 Democratic party platform doesn’t contain any explicit mention of the topic. In contrast, the Republican party has a clear statement regarding its policy on crypto:
“5. Champion Innovation
Republicans will pave the way for future Economic Greatness by leading the World in Emerging Industries.
Crypto
Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency. We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.”
Trump has also delivered pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric throughout his campaign, vowing to hold all seized Bitcoin in the U.S. treasury reserve and fire Gary Gensler (the current SEC chair), alongside ensuring that America will play a crucial role in the future of crypto and Bitcoin mining if he is elected president. This embrace of crypto as a campaign issue was clearest when Trump spoke at the BTC Nashville conference.
Although not directly written in the manifesto, the requirement for tighter rulings in the digital space is a rhetoric that has been repeated by the Republican party across its 2024 campaign. A clearer regulatory landscape isn't necessarily a bad thing, since it would follow that, with well-defined rulings, businesses and individuals alike would feel safer and more comfortable investing money and time into the digital asset space. Of course, the big deciding factor of whether the regulations will be a win for crypto investors, particularly in the U.S., is the scope of the regulations themselves.
Has crypto responded to the election campaign so far?
BTC’s increased sensitivity to macroeconomic events means that it has responded to developments in the run up to one of the most important events of the year — the U.S. presidential election. In addition, the fact that institutional investors are likely driving more of BTC’s price action, along with BTC’s emergence as a named issue in multiple candidates’ manifestos, has meant that twists and turns in the chances of either candidate have had an impact on crypto asset spot price action.
This relationship wasn’t as clear in previous election cycles. Price movements near to significant twists in the 2020 campaign didn’t stand out from BTC’s own volatility.
In contrast, the 2024 campaign has already seen notable events move prices. For example, we observed a rally in BTC’s spot price soon after the attempted assassination of Trump proved positive for his election probability. The increase in Trump’s chances of winning the White House was confirmed by trading data on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market. Similar to crypto markets, Polymarket trades 24/7 and, in particular, its Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has become a popular indicator of real-time sentiment changes, which is particularly relevant during periods of political uncertainty.
This relationship is visible in the chart above, with BTC’s spot price rallying soon after Donald Trump’s implied probability rallied from 60% to above 70% on Jul 13. Also plotted is the date that Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed the eventual Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, on Jul 21. Notably, this didn’t result in any immediate reaction in BTC spot prices or Trump’s winning probability, as Harris’s chance of taking the nomination grew steadily over the following months.
These events indicate that, while responsive to the election cycle, there are many other factors (both macro- and crypto-specific) that affect BTC’s price action and must be considered. For example, BTC’s spot evolution in 2024 (shown in the chart above) shows that the unwinding of the yen carry trade caused a much steeper crash in spot. Clearly, political events aren’t the sole determinant of price action in crypto assets, but the impact of previous events indicates that the election will continue to drive the narrative in the future.
How are markets positioned ahead of the November election?
Given BTC’s emergence as a policy issue and the previous response in spot price, option markets have begun to show signs of positioning around the Nov 5 election date. That can be seen in the term structure of at-the-money implied volatility, which shows market expectations for spot price volatility as a function of expiration.
We’ve seen a clear kink develop in the term structure in the run up to the 2024 election, as markets price optionality at expirations after the election at a premium to those before it. The red dots in the chart below correspond to the at-the-money implied volatility level for the election date, and track the movement of the date across the term structure.
The kink appears just after the actual election date, as the closest listed expiration is on November 8, an early introduction to the listing schedule by several exchanges to allow traders to take exposure covering the election. The current cycle’s positioning is a marked difference to the term structure curves observed in the run-up to the 2020 election, where no such behavior can be observed.
While levels of implied volatility at longer-dated tenors have been lifted significantly above the front end of the term structure for several months, the dislocation grows clearest in the aftermath of the yen carry trade unwind crash in early Aug 2024, as short-tenor volatility falls significantly and the 90d and 180d constant tenors compress to the same level.
We also see a similar (if less drastic) dislocation between the skew of volatility smiles at tenors on either side of the election date. Options markets reflect a stronger focus on bullish upside exposure for expirations after the election, while short-term smiles indicate that a premium is assigned to the volatility of OTM puts.
We don’t see the same bullish positioning in the S&P 500 in reaction to the election, as shown by the term structures of the 25-delta put-call skew implied by the volatility surfaces of both assets below. Negative values indicate a higher relative pricing for downside protection in puts, while positive values indicate the same for upside exposure in calls.
Despite the correlation between their spot prices, options markets are pricing markedly different fortunes for U.S. equities and BTC over the next year. Where the SPX volatility surface is bearishly skewed toward puts at all tenors, BTC options markets assign a strong skew toward calls at expirations following the U.S. presidential election. Therefore, the market is pricing in the case where the wider equities market sells off, but crypto rallies following the conclusion of the election in early November.
In previous election cycles we have observed a minimal relationship between the political landscape and BTC price. As a result, historical price action can not be used as an accurate indicator of future price performance. However, as the asset class has moved further mainstream, we see this politicization of the asset reflected in the 2024 derivative data.
In particular, the kinks in the implied volatility term structure (reflecting the price premium associated with buying those specific options) indicate the market's expectation of major price movements immediately after the election. We find it particularly interesting that, although we have seen a clear price correlation between BTC and US equities (notably the S&P 500), the skew term structure (which shows how the market is positioning themselves post election) shows a conflicting picture - bullish on BTC and bearish on US equities. This is particularly odd given the strong (and increasing) correlation between the two asset classes.
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DeFi Analytics 20th December 2024
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics. We highlight the stabilisation of gas fees on Ethereum's network with no significant spikes in demand. Meanwhile, blob gas usage remains elevated at 400k, revealing ongoing and sustained Layer 2 demand for data uploads. An insight into DeFi activity is marked by Uniswap V3 transaction volume on Arbitrum and liquidation activities across Aave and Compound.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives December 18th
BTC’s spot price has recorded yet another all-time high, but unlike previous records this quarter, derivatives markets haven’t reflected the same leveraged bullish positioning. This is likely a result of the reset in leverage earlier last week, which has seen funding rates return to “normal” levels across the board, a letup in the growth of futures yields and a slightly less exuberant skew toward calls in options.
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DeFi Analytics 13th December 2024
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics. We highlight Ethereum's increased network demand and the change in hourly average gas fees burnt per block and excess blob gas fees associated with this. An insight into DeFi activity is marked by Uniswap V3 transaction volume on Arbitrum and liquidation activities across Aave and Compound.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives December 12th
BTC and ETH’s oscillating spot levels over the last week below psychological price targets have left their mark on derivatives markets. A pullback in spot price was exacerbated by a spate of liquidations of over-leveraged long positions in perpetual swaps markets. The aftermath sees a fall in open interest in the instruments, particularly in ETH markets, and a reset of previously overheated funding rates to much lower (but still positive) levels across the board.
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DeFi Analytics 6th December 2024
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics. We highlight Ethereum's surging network activity: burnt gas fees neared 2 ETH per block alongside transfer costs peaking at $10 amid a growing ETH spot price. Excess blob gas remained elevated, exceeding 70M- a factor of consideration for Layer 2s. An insight into DeFi activity is marked by Uniswap V3 transaction volume on Arbitrum and liquidation activities across Aave and Compound.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives December 5th
Following several repeated attempts, BTC has finally breached its $100K price target. The effect on derivatives markets is a clear increase in bullish positioning on top of the resilient positive sentiment that we had commented on in the build-up to the move. Perpetual swaps and futures markets reflect a persistent desire for further upside exposure. Short-tenor implied volatility, which has repeatedly inverted the term structure in tandem with spot price rallies, has risen once again as traders rush for exposure to the rally through options.
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Volatility Review November 2024
November’s turbulent spot price movements had a pronounced impact on derivatives markets, highlighting notable trends in crypto volatility. The term structure of at-the-money implied volatility became a focal point in the weeks leading up to the election on November 5, 2024, as short-term implied volatility surged to levels approximately 25 percentage points higher than post-election expirations. This spike, coupled with bullish positioning observed in perpetual swaps and futures markets, underscored a strong demand for optionality at expirations near the election date, reflecting traders’ singular focus on the event's outcome. In the two weeks following the election, the term structure continued to oscillate between inversion and steepness, signaling a highly responsive market that rapidly adjusted to shifting sentiment and evolving conditions.
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Bybit x Block Scholes: A Journey of Growth and Milestones Toward Becoming the No. 2 Crypto Exchange
As Bybit celebrates its sixth anniversary, it stands as a powerhouse in the crypto exchange landscape, commanding a 12.21% market share and surpassing 50 million users in 2024. With daily spot trading volumes exceeding $10 billion and perpetual swaps also dominating, Bybit’s journey reflects both its growth and the evolving dynamics of crypto markets. We explore Bybit's growth story to discover trends in BTC and altcoin trading, patterns in weekly liquidity and volatility, how institutions are reshaping the space, and what this means for your next big move. Read now to stay ahead of the market!
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives November 27th
A bounce-off of the key $100K price level for BTC has slowed growth in bullish positioning this week, but it hasn’t yet resulted in a sharp spate of liquidations or position closing. ETH has sustained its outperformance over the week, following the announcement of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s January 2025 departure, and is joined in its outperformance by a swath of large-cap altcoins that had previously come under the scrutiny of the SEC under Gensler’s leadership, as reflected in bullish funding rates paid by long positions for the privilege of leveraged long exposure through the contract.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives November 20th
Spot prices have surged in the two weeks since the Nov 5, 2024 U.S. elections, sending BTC far beyond its all-time price highs, while ETH has lagged behind. The implied volatility term structure has inverted once more alongside movements in spot, but longer-dated tenors remain relatively range-bound. Derivatives market indicators have shown persistently strong positive sentiment: perpetual funding rates remain constantly positive, open interest for futures contracts is growing rapidly and options skew is stubbornly positive.
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Bybit x Block Scholes: Takeaways from the U.S. Election and What to Look for Next
Donald Trump’s election signals a pivotal shift in cryptocurrency policy, moving from skepticism to advocacy, which may redefine the regulatory landscape. The election result triggered immediate and substantial reactions in the crypto markets, particularly evident in Bitcoin's price surge, reflecting heightened investor optimism. A Republican-controlled U.S. Congress could lead to clearer and more favorable regulations for digital assets, fostering innovation and investment in the sector. As Bitcoin's dominance persists, emerging regulatory clarity may catalyze a resurgence in altcoins, particularly for platforms like Ethereum and Solana, which are poised to benefit from a pro-crypto environment.
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Crypto Derivatives 19th November 2024
Derivatives markets continue to reflect the bullish momentum of recent weeks. Spot yields are approaching the positive highs observed last week, signalling robust demand as traders are willing to pay a premium for leveraged long exposure via the futures contracts. Skew levels and perpetual contracts funding rates remain firmly positive, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment and indicating that market participants are seeking exposure to upwards price action. Meanwhile, implied volatility remains within a range-bound pattern, while the term structure remains inverted. Current levels of inversion have yet to surpass the heightened activity seen during the pre-election period, but remain closely linked to spot movements.
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DeFi Analytics 14th November 2024
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, This week we highlight the surging demand for blob gas, with the hourly average excess blob gas per Ethereum block reaching 60-80M. Meanwhile, the Beacon Chain deposits remained steady at 32.4M, with ongoing withdrawals and inflows balancing each other out. Ethereum’s gas fees saw a correction, aligning with the post-election rally in ETH’s spot price. The average cost to transfer ETH spiked to $3.40, with burnt gas fees returning to early October levels. An insight into DeFi activity is marked by Uniswap V3 transaction volume on Arbitrum and liquidation activities across Aave and Compound.
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Crypto Derivatives 12th November 2024
One week after the election, spot prices have shown remarkable strength, with BTC reaching new all-time highs following an explosive rise. ETH, while not yet at record levels, has also gained upward momentum, displaying a steady increase since the election date. In the derivatives market, sentiment has strengthened for both tokens: futures implied yields, perpetuals funding rates, and skew all indicate a highly positive outlook. ATM implied volatility, which initially dropped after the election event risk passed, has since surged, inverting the term structure. Both BTC and ETH now benefit from a powerful combination of spot price gains and robust bullish derivatives activity, signalling strong demand to participate in further upside potential.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives November 6th
As the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election became clear, short-dated implied volatility levels dropped significantly for both BTC and ETH, with term structures flattening for BTC and evolving into a steep curve for ETH. Leveraged positions, which had unwound during pre-election spot volatility, have since rebounded, leading to a rise in open interest across both perpetuals and futures. Despite the passing of the event risk, positioning across all markets remains close to all-time highs, indicating that traders are willing to continue to pay for leveraged long exposure as BTC trades at all-time highs.
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DeFi Analytics 7th November 2024
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, November has seen the Beacon Chain balance drop as withdrawals have dominated, while Ethereum’s on-chain activity slowed despite an increase in it's spot price following the US election. Separately, Solana continues to near Ethereum in gas fee generation. There was an increased demand in blob gas usage on Ethereum with Hourly Average Excess Blob Gas per Ethereum Block maintaining spikes of 70-80M. DeFi activity shifted, reflected in Uniswap V3 transactions on Arbitrum and liquidations across Aave and Compound.
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Crypto Derivatives 5th November 2024
In the days leading up to the election we’ve observed a decline in both futures implied yields and perpetuals funding rates. With election-related uncertainty and recent spot price fluctuations, it’s clear that traders are now hesitant to pursue leveraged exposure in BTC and ETH as aggressively as they did last week, when the buildup of leverage was evident. This points to a reduced appetite for high-stakes directional bets, as BTC’s implied volatility remains elevated and continues to rise. Despite this, BTC’s volatility smiles keep signalling a bullish sentiment. In contrast, ETH’s implied volatility levels have slowed and moved sideways over recent days, with options’ skew reflecting a more bearish short-term sentiment. The spotlight therefore remains on BTC as the election cycle reaches its conclusion.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 30th
As the U.S. election approaches, short-tenor implied volatility has surged to multi-month highs, outperforming the far-end of the term structure and resulting in a significant inversion in the term structure. This indicates strong moves in positioning ahead of the election early next week, reminiscent of the same pattern observed prior to the ETF launch in January. ETH derivatives suggest that the second-largest cryptocurrency is likely to continue its long-standing trend of underperformance amid event risk, trailing BTC across all metrics and carrying a 10-point volatility premium over BTC.
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DeFi Analytics 31st October 24
This week's edition of our Crypto DeFi Analytics, October saw stable Beacon Chain balances as withdrawals matched deposits, while Ethereum’s on-chain activity slowed alongside a range-bound spot. On October 28, Solana’s gas fee generation exceeded Ethereum's, collecting $2.54M to Ethereum's $2.07M. Blob gas usage on Ethereum peaked, with excess blob gas spiking past 50M. DeFi activity shifted, reflected in Uniswap V3 transactions on Arbitrum and liquidations across Aave and Compound.
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Crypto Derivatives 29th October 2024
The bullish pre-election positioning that we saw building up earlier in October has continued with vigour over the last 3 days. Futures-implied yields, perpetual swap funding rates, and now implied volatility have risen to months-long highs, with short-tenor option expiries out-performing to invert the term structure of volatility in a similar manner to the shape we observed ahead of the ETF launch in January. ETH derivatives indicate an expectation that the second largest crypto-currency will continue its years-long trend of under-performance through the event risk, lagging BTC in all metrics and assigning a 10 point volatility premium over BTC, but echo the trend of increasing bullish sentiment that we see expressed across markets.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 23rd
With only two weeks left until the 2024 U.S. elections, ATM implied volatility levels have increased largely for 14-day tenor options, even as overall implied volatility levels have been trending downward, resulting in a very steep term structure. Sentiment remains bullish, as indicated by key metrics: open interest for both futures and call options is rising, and funding rates are positive for all monitored tokens, not just BTC and ETH. While the focus is primarily on majors BTC and ETH leading up to the election, traders are therefore anticipating a broader impact on the entire crypto ecosystem.
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Crypto Senti-Meter V2: A Derivatives Sentiment Index
Block Scholes' Crypto Senti-Meter aggregates several measures metrics to measure the sentiment expressed by crypto-asset derivatives markets. Our index methodology leverages 4 years of advanced derivatives analytics, and is strongly correlated with movements in spot prices. In this second iteration of the index, we measure changes in momentum in derivatives market sentiment by evaluating the most recent value against its recent history.
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Crypto Derivatives 22nd October 2024
The positive sentiment observed last week has consolidated, with bullishness reflected across key metrics for both majors. Perpetual funding rates remain positive, implied futures yields continue to show elevated levels and an inverted term structure, and the implied volatility smiles’ skew remains strongly tilted toward calls across tenors. The upcoming election is still impacting market dynamics greatly, with implied volatility for 14-day tenor options in both ETH and BTC rising, now approaching levels seen in longer-tenor options. At the same time, volatility at the far end of the term structure continues to trend sideways, only showing a slight decrease for BTC options. Notably, 7-day tenor options saw a spike in volatility last week, now having dropped sharply and sitting lower than last week.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 16th
Despite the recent spot price rally, the extreme dislocation between long- and short-dated implied volatility continues. Market participants are therefore positioning more around post-election expectations than to the recent bullish movements in spot prices, which have led to a rise in realized 7-day volatility that now matches implied volatility levels for 30-day-tenor options. Bullish reactions to spot price activity can be observed, especially in perpetual funding rates, which now trade positively across almost all tokens.
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Crypto Derivatives 15th October 2024
We’ve seen evidence of increasingly positive sentiment in the derivatives markets over the last week. The futures implied yields term structure has inverted, with a dramatic rise at the front end that signals increased demand for near-term long exposure. The perp swap funding rate has remained positive for both BTC and ETH, reflecting bullish sentiment as traders are willing to pay to hold long positions. Additionally, volatility smile skews have grown towards calls, reflecting the increasing appetite for upside exposure that we see in futures. At the same time, while pre-election implied volatility has remained subdued, reflecting relatively stable spot price movements, this positive market sentiment suggests expectations for a continued rise in spot prices that we have not seen in some time.
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Block Scholes x Derive How to Analyse the Volatility Smile to Understand Market Positioning
Structured products are financial instruments that use options to customize investment strategies and enhance yields based on market views. Derive's "Vaults" aim to generate higher yields but carry the risk of loss if the strategy underperforms. This report will examine the key strategies available on the Derive platform, break them down into familiar options strategies, and explain how to leverage the volatility smile to make informed decisions for maximizing yield based on market expectations.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 9th
The uncertainty associated with the upcoming U.S. election remains evident for the term structures of both BTC’s and ETH’s implied volatility. While implied volatility levels have been trending downward, realized volatility has been on the rise in early October, driven by recent short-lived fluctuations in spot prices. The downward trend in implied volatility levels contrasts with the buildup of positioning that we typically observe ahead of known event risks, as we saw ahead of the release of BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024.
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Crypto Derivatives 8th October 2024
With less than 30 days left until the US Presidential election, the term structure of ATM implied volatility is clearly showing the same dislocation that we have observed for several months. Implied volatility levels for 30-day-tenor options have moved further up, now trading similar levels to longer-dated options. Despite the relative kink, outright volatility levels have dipped in the past week for both majors. Spot price downside volatility in early October has been reflected in derivatives sentiment, with volatility smiles skewing towards puts at pre-election expiries. While levels have since recovered for BTC OTM options, showing a preference overall for OTM calls, ETH volatility smiles still exhibit a premium assigned to puts at short tenors.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives October 2nd
The U.S. presidential election continues to present a volatility premium for expirations later than the Nov 5, 2024 date. While longer-tenor volatility smiles have presented a consistent skew toward OTM calls, short-tenor options have recently followed suit. Derivatives markets have expressed that the pullback in spot prices at the end of September hasn’t had a significantly bearish impact on sentiment.
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Crypto Derivatives 1st October 2024
Despite a general slow down in spot price action for both majors, their derivatives markets have shown confirmation of what we first noticed last week: clear indications of a return to short-term positive sentiment and bullish trading activity. The recent skew towards OTM calls has consolidated, and we now observe a call-skew for smiles across all tenors. Perpetual swap funding rates have been strongly oscillating, but have registered high positive values throughout the week. At the same time, the front end of the term structure for ATM options’ volatility has increased substantially near to the 30-day tenor, as the US election moves closer along the term structure: this is further evidence that the date is influencing market positioning.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 25th
Following the Federal Reserve’s 50 bps rate cut on Sep 18, 2024, spot prices for both BTC and ETH have reacted positively. Derivatives markets are exhibiting various indications of positive sentiment: both futures and perpetual swap open interest have maintained high levels, and funding rates have traded positively overall for most tokens. BTC’s open interest for calls has slowly been on the rise, and the volatility smile has grown steadily toward calls for both BTC and ETH. While implied volatility levels for ATM short-dated options have oscillated downward, we see a growing positive outlook overall in the derivatives market for the short term.
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Crypto Derivatives 24th September 2024
Following the cut in the Fed funds interest rate on September 18, 2024 we have seen an increase in spot prices for both major coins and an overall positive sentiment in the derivatives markets. The futures implied yields term structure was largely inverted over the last week, with yields showing high levels for the short term. However, the curve has now disinverted, having returned to similar levels as of last week. Perp swaps funding rates have fully recovered for both tokens, after a long period of stagnant negative rates. While ATM implied volatility levels have been on a slight decline for both BTC and ETH options, skews have been on the rise across all tenors, indicating a general increase in preference towards calls, adding to the evidence of a growing bullish sentiment in derivatives markets after the interest rate cut.
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Bybit x Block Scholes: How to Sail Through the Rate Cuts Cycle and U.S. Election With Your Crypto Investments
Our report highlights the changing dynamics of Bitcoin in the investment landscape. Since the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has increasingly correlated with risk-on assets, particularly the S&P 500. This development suggests a growing interest from institutional investors, positioning BTC as a significant macro asset. Historically, cryptocurrencies have experienced volatility, but this newfound connection to traditional equities indicates that BTC is becoming a preferred option for investors seeking exposure to broader market trends. As Bitcoin's role evolves, it is increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, similar to gold. This shift in perception underscores the necessity for investors to reassess their strategies, and to consider Bitcoin's potential as both a traditional asset and an emerging digital currency.
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Crypto Derivatives 17th September 2024
The spot recovery we observed last week, for both tokens, has slowed down over the past days, with prices remaining within range-bound action. ETH’s futures yields have dropped for short tenors: while we can observe a flat term-structure for BTC’s yields similar to last week, ETH’s now results in a steep structure. Implied volatility levels have overall dropped similarly for both tokens, with ETH’s options remaining at a consistent volatility premium than BTC’s across all tenors. However, volatility levels for short tenors appear to be on the rise once again. Despite oscillation in implied volatility skew, sentiment has moved sideways, not expressing changes from last week across all tenors.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 11th
Derivatives markets continue to look forward to the US Election, pricing volatility for expiries later than the November 5 date at a significant premium to shorter-dated optionality. This is in contrast to the short term events that dominate the calendar in September, with the Federal Reserve set to join the growing global easing of interest rates after CPI figures in August confirmed that inflation is indeed falling in the US. Attention now turns to the labour market, which poses the stronger risk to the Fed’s dual mandate and may dictate the pace of their impending cutting cycle.
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Crypto Derivatives 10th September 2024
After a 12-day period of spot decline since August 26, prices for both major tokens have finally started to recover over the past few days. This rise has positively affected short tenor futures yields, which have risen significantly in the past week, resulting in a flattened term structure. Implied volatility levels for BTC and ETH short-tenor options have been rising dramatically since the beginning of the month, while short-term skews have dropped and rebounded, now being at similar levels as of last week. As a result, ETH options are consistently skewed towards puts for short-tenor options, whereas short-term sentiment for BTC is neutral again and not expressing such a strong preference.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives September 4th
After the recent drop in BTC and ETH spot prices over the last week, we can observe an overall increase in implied volatility levels across the term structure for both major tokens. The front end of the structure has been particularly affected. For example, ETH 7-day option volatility has risen to the same levels as long-tenor options. Derivative markets remain skewed toward OTM puts for both majors for short term options, showing a significant strengthening in a short-term bearish outlook as spot fails to pick up. The negative sentiment for cryptocurrencies continues with open interest for BTC options showing higher levels for puts, and total open interest for perp swaps on the decline following the most recent sell-off.
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Crypto Derivatives 3rd September 2024
Despite volatility levels having largely fluctuated for short-tenor ATM options, from the term structure we can once again observe that, as the US election approaches, volatility for options expiring after the election date is rising. We can additionally observe that skew for short-tenor options has been evolving positively in the past few days, with skew levels slightly rising similarly to what happened in mid-August, indicating a more neutral outlook despite the recent spot volatility. Concurrently, long-tenor options have consistently been pricing in higher volatility levels across the term structure, showing a stronger preference towards OTM calls.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 28th
Derivatives markets indicate a similar positioning after the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to that which we saw last week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation of the beginning of a rate cutting cycle in the Fed’s September meeting did little to change markets’ expectations on the pace of rate cuts, as it had already priced for 100 bps of cuts across the three remaining meetings of the year. Instead, it was the spot price sell-off on August 28 that moved markets -— with indications of a spate of perpetual swap liquidations in majors, and a small but noticeable spike in short-tenor volatility levels. The term structure of volatility holds a similar shape to last week’s, pricing in a volatility premium for expirations covering the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Nov 5, 2024.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 22nd
Another week of low volatility, sideways price action has none-the-less provided interetsing trade activity in derivatives. The additional bearishness afforded to ETH over BTC has continued, with a more negative funding rate over the past month, at-the-money volatility premium, and stronger skews towards OTM puts, especially at short-dated expiries. Despite this, the volatility markets of both majors indicate a growing premium priced in for the November 5, 2024 U.S. Presidential election date, with an increased bullishness for expiries after the event expressed by a stronger skew towards OTM calls.
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Crypto Derivatives 20th August 24
Since recovering from the selloff in the first week of August, spot prices have largely moved sideways. This period of relative calmness has opened up a space for a divergence in sentiment between BTC and ETH, with metrics across derivatives markets indicating a stronger bearishness assigned to the latter in the short term. ETH futures-implied yields trade significantly lower, perpetual swap funding rates have moved intermittently negative, and options on ETH trade with a premium to BTC’s implied volatility across the term structure, with short-tenor OTM puts afforded an implied volatility premium over OTM calls.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 14th
The past week of spot price action has been relatively calm in comparison to the two that preceded it. Without an obvious catalyst to drive spot prices back to the highs lost in last week’s selloff, the recovery has floundered somewhat. Derivatives markets reflect the elevated uncertainty, with volatility levels trading at their July highs despite a resolution to the inverted shape of their term structure. Sentiment remains more bearish for ETH, which prices in a higher level of implied vol, lower funding rates, and stronger skew towards OTM puts.
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Crypto Derivatives 13th August 24
Following the market selloff and the surge in volatility we have witnessed last week, derivatives market seem to have stabilized. Volatility has dropped for both BTC and ETH at the front end of the term structure, and funding rates returned positive for BTC while slowly rising for ETH. The period of market distress we have observed after the sudden risk-off event appears to have abated for now. However, skew has confirmed the trend we highlighted last week, as longer-dated volatility smiles remain skewed towards OTM calls and shorter tenors show a preference for OTM puts. While sentiment in the long-run still remains bullish, markets still show caution in the short term.
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Bybit x Block Scholes: The Bitcoin Rally May Not Yet Be Over
In the 15 years since its inception, BTC’s price action has displayed an uncanny pattern of repetition. Looking at BTC’s historical price data, we can subdivide each of the three historical cycles of strikingly similar price action for BTC: recovery, boom and bust. The most recent bull run, which started in late 2022, is currently 624 days in. Compared to historical averages, this cycle could last another 350 days, though returns in each cycle have diminished over time. Lower disposable capital among retail traders (as indicated by the lower level of personal savings, following a period of high and persistent inflation) has thus far been expressed in the lack of the exuberance that we’ve come to expect in bull cycles. The changing intra-asset correlation structure between crypto and meme coins suggests that a different type of investor may be behind the most recent rally in prices: institutions. The renewed co-movement with equities coincides with the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024, as well as the unlocking of a new pool of demand for crypto.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives August 6th
A week of bullish narratives for crypto at the BTC Nashville conference and the launch of ETH Spot ETFs has been followed by a starkly contrasting sell-off. Crypto has once again proved its position as a 24-hour macro indicator, as it reacted strongly to the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report on Aug 2, 2024. Alongside other risky assets, the news saw a sharp sell-off across crypto assets. However, it hasn’t yet seen the same wipeout of leveraged positioning or elevated volatility levels in the way that we’ve come to expect from double-digit crashes.
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Crypto Derivatives 6th August 24
One of the largest global market selloffs since the COVID pandemic took its toll on crypto-spot prices, resulting in double-digit selloffs that were harder felt by ETH and alts than BTC. The selloff saw funding rates spike negative as accumualted long positions were likely liquidated, and the volatility term structure inverted as traders rushed to cover exposure to further downside moves in the short term. However, volatility levels did not spike above their year-to-date highs for either major, and longer-dated volatility smiles remained steadfastly skewed towards OTM calls. This indicates that while this was strong move in the short term, traders are not yet concerned about long-term performance.
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SOFA Structured Products: EARN & SURGE
Using SOFA structured products to express market views offered several advantages over taking the same exposure on offchain or centralised alternatives. Trading options positions onchain removes counterparty risk as settlement is ensured by the verifiable logic of a smart contract and full collateralisation. Trading on SOFA offers exposure to the RCH token, which is airdropped to users on a periodic schedule. These tokens are awarded to users according to the proportion of volume that they trade in each recording period. Onchain positions in SOFA structured products are tokenised using leverage the ERC-1155 token standard. This allows for custom position parameters to be stored on the token itself, allowing for a more accurate valuation of the position so that it can more easily be composed and used as collateral in other trades.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 19th July
The dramatic events of last weekend’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump have coincided with a strong recovery in crypto spot and, consequently, derivatives markets. Traders appear to express the “Trump Trade” just one week after spot prices crashed as the Republican candidate saw the probability of his re-election soar. Futures: Yields have recovered their pre–sell-off levels, and continue to express a healthy demand for leverage using derivatives contracts. We see similar levels in both BTC and ETH, despite ETH’s impending ETF launch, while open interest levels remain consistent with pre–sell-off levels. Perpetuals: While we don’t see a recovery in the number of open contracts to pre–sell-off levels, we do see a return to a moderately healthy positive funding rate paid from longs to shorts in all markets except TON. Options: Volatility at short tenors has rallied once again in response to short-term spot moves, first compressing the term structure and then steepening as the front end falls down once again. As it has done several times during short-term price volatility, short, sudden moves in spot price haven’t been enough to meaningfully lift long-run expectations of volatility.
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Crypto Derivatives 23rd July 24
While volatility has generally been on the rise for both BTC and ETH, the term structure of volatility has changed dramatically especially at shorter tenors, now having inverted at the front end and continuing to trade at a premium for ETH options compared to BTC options. Volatility skew suggests that call options are preferred for both digital currencies. A general bullish trend is observed but more strongly for BTC, as reflected in the future implied yield chart and the perp swap funding rate, if not the skew of its volatility surface. Despite the recent approval of an ETH spot ETF, BTC is still holds a stronger bullish sentiment in derivatives space.
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Crypto Derivatives 16th July 24
Spot prices have performed a significant recovery since bouncing off the lower bound of their recent range almost one week ago. As a result, delivered volatility has stayed at its highs and has materially increased implied volatility at short-tenor options and inverted the term structure. The recovery has inspired a return to double digit yields implied by both BTC and ETH futures markets, but only the former asset sees a similar sentiment expressed by its perpetual swap funding rates. ETH still has its months-long-held volatility premium over BTC of around 10 points, but its short-tenors did not push as close to the levels at the back end of the term structure leaving its term structure slightly steeper.
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Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 12th July
Futures: Future-implied yields have recovered from their spike lower, but continue their downward trend over the month. Perps: Despite the recent bearish price action, we don’t see a widespread or persistently negative funding rate in perpetual swap markets except for TON. Open Interest in majors has fallen during the period of spot market volatility as traders close out positions Options: ETH volatility trades at a 10–15 point premium to BTC’s at all tenor points on the term structure, has recovered its volatility smile skew toward OTM calls much faster than BTC, and has seen incredible trade volumes in calls that far outweigh the activity in its puts. ETH derivatives markets continue to reflect different positioning when compared to BTC, which may be linked to hopes and expectations of the imminent launch of its first Spot ETFs in the U.S. However, ETH’s volatility premium above BTC is not a new phenomenon, and is also reflected in the increased realized volatility with which it has moved for much of the past month.
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Crypto Derivatives 9th July 24
The latest venture of spot prices down to the bottom of their range has seen volatility levels at short tenors spike while traders rush to protect against further downside price action. While funding rates has remained steadily positive and short tenor future-implied yields have recovered some of their lost ground, volatility smiles remain skewed towards OTM puts and short tenor volatility has not fallen back from the levels of longer dated tenors. ETH retains its 10 vol point premium over BTC volatility at equivalent tenors and its term structure trades much flatter, continuing a trend that we have seen several times over the past month of range-bound price action.
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Crypto Derivatives 2nd July 24
As spot prices trade at their lowest levels since early May, we see a stark divergence in the sentiment priced in by BTC and ETH options markets. ETH continues to trade with a 10-15 volatility premium across the term structure, and the most recent move lower in spot prices has seen BTC vol smile skew turned decidedly bearish at short tenors while ETH smiles skew neutral or towards calls at all tenors. While the fall in future-implied yields has recovered to last weeks levels, funding rates in the two majors have repeatedly charged short positions since the 9th June -- a phenomenon that we observe across perpetual-swap markets.
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Crypto Derivatives 25th June 24
As spot prices trade at their lowest levels since early May, we see a stark divergence in the sentiment priced in by BTC and ETH options markets. ETH continues to trade with a 10-15 volatility premium across the term structure, and the most recent move lower in spot prices has seen BTC vol smile skew turned decidedly bearish at short tenors while ETH smiles skew neutral or towards calls at all tenors. While the fall in future-implied yields has recovered to last weeks levels, funding rates in the two majors have repeatedly charged short positions since the 9th June -- a phenomenon that we observe across perpetual-swap markets.
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DeFi Analytics 19th June 24
This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.
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Crypto Derivatives 18th June 24
Yields implied by futures prices have declined over the past week, steepening term structures that have experienced several inversions in the past month. The reduction in leverage has been more pronounced for BTC compared to ETH, as ETH's perpetual swap funding rate remains active but below the levels observed at the end of May. Volatility expectations are trending slightly upward, in line with the increased market choppiness over the last week, and ETH volatility markets continue to command a premium. Reflecting their futures markets, ETH's skew indicates slightly more bullish positioning than BTC's, with both vol smiles moving closer to neutral for shorter-dated expiries.
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DeFi Analytics 12th June 24
This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.
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Crypto Derivatives 11th June 24
With BTC failing once again to break range highs, implied vol at the front-end of the term structure for both majors has increased over the last week, whilst vol at the back-end has either drifted lower, or continues to trade sideways. This had led to a more compressed term structure. The vol smile skew for BTC has largely traded sideways, and still remains skewed towards OTM calls. However, ETH is skewed towards OTM puts at short-dated tenors as implied vol for OTM puts has risen approximately 8% over the last week. In addition, demand for leveraged long exposure has fallen as investors look to exercise caution following BTC’s inability to break range highs. Annualised yields have fallen across the term structure, and funding rates continue to trade close to zero.
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Crypto Derivatives 4th June 24
With few macro and crypto-specific events on the immediate horizon, volatility has largely continued to trade sideways in both majors over the past week as spot prices trade near range highs of $68.9K and $3.8K. The vol smile skew for BTC and ETH at short-dated tenors has increased from previous neutral levels, as implied vol for OTM puts has fallen. Over the past month, demand for leveraged long exposure in both majors has increased as futures yields have risen consistently, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium above spot price in order to gain exposure to the underlying asset. Over a shorter lookback period of a few days, yields at short-dated tenors have fallen in both majors, although the long term trend remains intact.
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Crypto Senti-Meter: A Derivatives Sentiment Index
Block Scholes' Crypto Senti-Meter aggregates several measures metrics to measure the sentiment expressed by crypto-asset derivatives markets. Our index methodology leverages 4 years of advanced derivatives analytics, and is strongly correlated with movements in spot prices.
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Crypto Derivatives 28th May 24
Volatility has fallen across the term structure in both majors over the past week as they continue to trade near range highs of $68.9K and $3.9K. Following the news of an upgrade in the probability of an Ethereum ETF, implied vol spiked at the front-end, inverting the term structure. This inversion has since corrected itself, with implied vol at the front-end falling. BTC’s vol smile skew has fallen to more neutral levels as implied vol for OTM calls falls, indicating reduced short-term bullish sentiment. However, ETH is heavily skewed towards calls due to implied vol for OTM puts falling, as investors reposition themselves due to the recent ETF news. Demand for leveraged long exposure, which is stronger in ETH, fell at the start of the week, as indicated by spot yields, before rising again at the front-end.
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Ethereum’s New Gas Market Paradigm
In our report ahead of the Dencun upgrade in March, we forecast a swift migration of L2 transaction data to the new, dedicated blob space. We also expected the swift recovery in gas usage to the 15 million unit per block target, but at a much lower base fee due to the lower usage by L2s. While we were correct to predict a fall in the base fee burned, the impact on the net supply dynamics of ETH has been swifter than we expected. The new supply of ETH minted on the Beacon chain now outweighs the burned supply for the first time since the Merge, removing a potential tailwind that failed to support ETH against BTC during the last 18 months of under-performance.
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Crypto Derivatives 21st May 24
Volatility has continued to gradually rise across the term structure, with ETH spiking at all tenors over the last day following an upgrade in the probability of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved. With implied volatility spiking particularly at the front-end, the term structure has become inverted. Implied volatility for ETH options now sits at levels not seen since April. The vol smile skew also recovered towards calls over the past week, but has since sold off at the front-end as investors rush to purchase OTM puts for downside protection as spot price reaches range highs of $71K and a $3.7K. Leverage in futures markets has increased, particularly at short-dated tenors which have risen beyond longer-dated tenors, indicating a demand for leveraged long exposure that is stronger for ETH.
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Crypto Derivatives 14th May 24
Volatility has gradually risen across the term structure as BTC trades near its range lows of $60K, but has still not deviated from its longer term downward trend. ETH continues to trade 5-7 vols higher than BTC. Despite a strong start to the month where skew recovered following the spot sell-off which saw investors purchase OTM puts for downside protection, the skew at short-dated tenors has traded with some uncertainty recently. ETH’s skew continues to trade lower than BTC’s, indicating more bearish positioning. Leverage - indicated by perpetual swap funding rates and futures-implied yields - has increased, particularly at short-dated tenors which have risen beyond longer-dated tenors, indicating demand for leveraged long exposure as both majors sit at precarious levels.
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Crypto Derivatives 7th May 24
Volatility has fallen following the recent spot sell-off, during which implied vol at short-dated tenors had spiked above longer-dated tenors and inverted the term structure. ETH continues to trade between 5-10 vols higher than BTC. In addition, the sell-off in spot saw a strong skew towards puts in both majors as investors became concerned with buying OTM puts for downside protection. This has since recovered - due to the selling of OTM puts - although ETH’s skew trades slightly lower than BTC at short-dated tenors, indicating more bearish positioning. Leverage as indicated by perpetual swap funding rates and futures-implied yields has increased slightly, but still remains far below the extremes observed in March.
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Crypto Derivatives 30th April 24
Leverage as indicated by perpetual swap funding rates and futures-implied yields remains much lower than the extremes we saw ahead of the flush-out at the end of March. Implied volatility levels have crashed lower for both tokens and across their term structures, led by a significant under-performance in shorter-dated tenors. Vol smiles remain intermittently skewed towards OTM puts at short tenors as the market appears to brace for further downside in the short term. ETH vols trade some 5 vols higher than BTC’s across the term structure, with both future-implied yields and vol smile skews indicating more bearish positioning than in BTCs markets, particularly in the short term.
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Crypto Derivatives 23rd April 24
Following a bounce in spot price at range lows, BTC and ETH currently trade at $66K and $3.2K respectively. Funding rates remain close to zero for both majors, and future-implied yields are near their lowest levels in more than a month as BTC trades in the middle of its sideways trending range. In the past week, volatility at short-dated tenor options has fallen, correcting the front-end of BTC and ETH’s previously inverted term structures. The fall in volatility was matched by a recovery in skew from OTM puts to more neutral levels at all tenors less than 3-months, indicating that investors are less concerned with buying OTM puts for downside protection.
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Crypto Derivatives 16th April 24
Funding rates and future-implied yields are near their lowest levels in more than a month after the weekend’s spot selloff took prices back to the bottom end of the sideways trending range. Volatility at short tenor options rallied, causing an inversion in both BTC and ETH’s term structures at the front end, without lifting volatility levels at longer-dated expiries. The rise in volatility was matched by a strong skew towards OTM puts of volatility smiles at all tenors less than 3-months, indicating a strong switch in sentiment towards a demand for downside protection.
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Crypto Derivatives 9th April 24
ETH lead another attempt by spot prices to cross above the year-long highs recorded in March. With it, we saw a return to high levels of leverage in derivatives markets: high yields implied by futures prices, high perpetual swap funding rates, and a rally in short dated at-the-money implied volatility that briefly inverted the term structure. However, the rally was shorter lived and smaller in size than that which took BTC prices to all-time highs. Furthermore, while volatility continues to trade flat across the term structure at its higher, 70-80% range, futures markets report a collapse in funding back to their longer-held trend.
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Crypto Derivatives 2nd April 24
After reaching locals highs of $71k and $3.7k earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH spot prices have fallen. This pullback has resulted in a slight decrease in demand for leveraged long exposure, reinforced by the increased skew towards puts in the smiles of both majors. However, excess demand for downside protection is less extreme when compared to earlier in the month where the 25-delta risk reversal skew for BTC and ETH reached lows of -9% and -17% respectively. Rather, the bearish turn in derivatives appears to be a repeat of the leverage flush out that we have seen several times during this rally. Implied volatility has risen for both majors, and particularly in short-dated tenors which has resulted in a flattening of the volatility term structure from its previously steep shape.
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Crypto Derivatives 26th March 24
After a pullback earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH have bounced to $70k and $3.7k respectively. Future-implied yields have risen, whilst implied volatility for both majors remains within a tight range. Perpetual swap funding rates remain positive, but low. The term structure for BTC and ETH - which was previously inverted - has corrected, with implied volatility at short-dated tenors falling below the volatility at long-dated tenors, suggesting reduced demand for long volatility exposure at shorter tenors. Furthermore, the 25-delta put/call skew has increased for both majors, indicating that traders are less worried about buying protective puts to hedge possible impending downside.
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Crypto Derivatives 19th March 24
We previously observed increased demand for downside protection, indicating that the market may be positioning itself against any potential retrace. Following a rally to all-time high levels, the market has pulled back. Short-dated tenors show a significant decrease in spot yields for BTC and ETH, signalling a shift in near-term market sentiment. Funding rates, although positive, have cooled from their monthly highs, indicating reduced demand for leveraged long exposure. Fluctuations in BTC and ETH's ATM vols suggest ongoing market uncertainty. Additionally, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal has shifted towards puts at short-dated tenors, indicating a bearish sentiment that is more pronounced in ETH than BTC.
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Crypto Derivatives 12th March 24
Future-implied yields and perpetual swap funding rate showcase the high demand for leveraged long exposure enjoyed by traders during the rally in spot prices to all-time high levels. We also see a slightly inverted term structure of volatility, suggesting high demand for long volatility exposure at shorter tenors. However, the breakthrough of the psychological $70K and $4K barriers has brought with it an increased demand for downside protection in 3- to 6-month tenor puts (and more prominently for ETH), indicating that the market may be positioning itself against any potential retrace below the freshly printed recorded levels.
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Crypto Derivatives 5th Mar 24
Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.
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October 2023 Crypto Volatility Review
October has brought implied volatility back into the mid-50s once again, as strong demand for participation in any further upwards moves sees the skew of both majors volatility miles move further towards calls. Despite the strong anticipation, however, realised volatility remains very close to historical lows. This leaves the volatility ratio of both BTC and ETH options at its highest since 2019, a spread that we believe cannot be attributed entirely to ETF speculation.
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Crypto Derivatives 27th Feb 24
Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.
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PREMIUM
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Crypto Derivatives 20th Feb 24
Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.
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PREMIUM
Institutional
Maximal Extractable Value
The Ethereum network's pivot to a new consensus mechanism in September 2022 caused a dramatic shakeup to the reward system available to blockbuilders. Maximal extractable value, previously merely a popular side project for Proof of Work miners, has now become the most attractive reward stream for validators, and understanding its nuances is key to a profitable validator operation.
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Ethereum's Gas Mechanics
The Ethereum network boasts the biggest Decentralised Finance ecosystem of any blockchain, an ecosystem supported by a network of smart contracts that allow for composable blocks of code to be executed by validators in the form of onchain transactions. The computation required by a transaction is performed by the validators (analogous to Bitcoin's miners) who create new blocks on the chain and is paid for in ETH by the sender.
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THE MERGE
In mid-September 2022, Ethereum’s blockchain completed its long-awaited merge into a Proof of Stake chain, deprecating the Proof of Work system that has found consensus for the network since its inception in 2015. The Merge marks the most significant event in crypto to date, as the community has never seen such a drastic change to such a high-profile chain, and with such unpredictable consequences. It represents the culmination of many years of research and testing by both the Ethereum foundation and its community and is just one step on a long roadmap of planned upgrades.
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Crypto Derivatives 13th Feb 24
Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.
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PREMIUM
Institutional
Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Understanding Consensus Layer Rewards
Ethereum has emerged as a prominent and transformative force in the world of blockchain and decentralised finance, revolutionising the concept of digital currencies and paving the way for countless innovative applications. With its robust infrastructure and vibrant ecosystem, Ethereum continues to captivate the imagination of developers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike with an evolving ecosystem. As part of that evolution, the Ethereum Foundation has released a roadmap of planned upgrades, intended to enhance the network’s scalability, security, and sustainability. The transition from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model in the Merge was the first (and maybe most ambitious!) of these upgrades. Completed in mid-September 2022, the shift required a stunning feat of blockchain and community engineering to put an end to Ether mining and instead derive the blockchain’s security and reliability from staking. After over two and a half years since the genesis block of the Beacon Chain, and ten successful months of PoS-powered blocks post the Merge, Ether staking has grown from infancy to an established & maturing practice.
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Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Analysing Execution Layer Rewards & MEV
In this second part of our examination of Ethereum staking rewards we will perform a deep-dive analysis of execution layer rewards, describe and assess the contribution of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) to a staker’s income, and review the drivers of MEV and its link to price volatility. We hope that you enjoy the full report, from which several key findings are outlined below.