Crypto Derivatives 26th March 24
After a pullback earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH have bounced to $70k and $3.7k respectively. Future-implied yields have risen, whilst implied volatility for both majors remains within a tight range. Perpetual swap funding rates remain positive, but low. The term structure for BTC and ETH - which was previously inverted - has corrected, with implied volatility at short-dated tenors falling below the volatility at long-dated tenors, suggesting reduced demand for long volatility exposure at shorter tenors. Furthermore, the 25-delta put/call skew has increased for both majors, indicating that traders are less worried about buying protective puts to hedge possible impending downside.

Futures Implied Yield, 1-Month Tenor

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

Futures

BTC Annualised Yields
After reaching lows for the month, spot yields at short-dated tenors have risen, indicating that traders are willing to pay more of a premium for leverage.

ETH Annualised Yields
A similar reversal can be seen in ETH, although the fall to lows was not as severe as in BTC.

Perpetual Swap Funding Rates
BTC Funding Rate
Funding has remained positive and low following a bounce in BTC at $60k, indicating continued demand for leveraged long exposure.

ETH Funding Rate
Funding in USDC-margined contracts is near zero, whilst token-margined contracts remain low relative to BTC, as well as in absolute terms.

BTC Options

BTC SABR ATM Implied Volatility
Is less volatile compared to previous weeks following a disinversion in the term structure.

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal
Although slightly skewed towards puts at short-dated tenors, the Put/Call skew has increased during the spot rally to $70k.

ETH Options

ETH SABR ATM Implied Volatility
Remains range bound between 70% - 80%, but is more volatile compared to BTC.

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal
Has increased significantly at short-dated tenors whilst spot has recovered following a pullback earlier in the week.

Volatility Surface
BTC Implied Vol Surface
Less inverted than previous weeks, whilst vol at long-dated tenors remains high relative to its recent values.

ETH Implied Vol Surface
Vol at the back end of the term structure remains high relative to recent values, whilst vol at the front end has fallen.

Volatility Smiles


Historical SABR Volatility Smiles



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